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mondrian · 04-03-2014, 05:07 PM

Before I begin, please read all of this post before arriving at a judgement.

I needed to determine the effect of posting free horse racing selections on a forum. I needed to determine whether the odds of the selections would increase after being posted, by what percentage and over what period of time. I could have tested this on a horse racing forum and, god knows, there’s enough out there. However, there are so many issues associated with such sites that I chose a non-horse racing associated forum instead – this one in fact.

I couldn’t advise you guys in advance because that would have invalidated the test.

I guess that some of you may be upset at this point because you may feel that you have been used. However, please be aware that the selections were taken from a well tried, well tested and trusted system and is the one that I actually use. It has been tested using data going as far back as 2008 and is probably one of the most tested systems that exists. Please also be aware that, before the test started, I stated that the strike rate of the system was 80%. During the test period, the system behaved impeccably and registered a strike rate of 83.33%. Those of you that used it to place actual bets would therefore have been amply rewarded.

The test is now complete and the data has been analysed – which is what I’ve been doing for the past few days. No, the system wasn’t broken. I said that just in case I needed to run more tests – sorry. The results are not as expected – which has come as a surprise. The selections drifted, as expected, but not by as much as they ought to have.

I always thought that those who frequent this forum were a smart bunch of cookies. However, I underestimated just how smart. Although the selections drifted, it looks as though those of you who were actually placing bets were trading out before the off and taking a guaranteed profit. Smart. The trading out before the off caused the odds of the selections to shorten again. This explains why the selections didn’t drift as much as expected.

My conclusion is therefore that posting free selections on a forum isn’t a good idea. This is why we need to test out theories because, what should happen in theory, doesn’t always happen in practice. This was one such case.

My thanks to all those who took part in the test, albeit unwittingly, and hope that you aren’t too offended and were amply rewarded.

As for my non-horse racing related posts: I only joined in because I thought that it would help to gain acceptance of my horse racing selections. That said, I really don’t like christianity. It is based on a lie and is used for immoral purposes. My feeling is that, as a result of scientific progress, it will die out and become a historical curiosity. Unfortunately, the more we Atheists give the christians hell, the more galvanised they become and attacking them may have the reverse of the desired effect. Reasoning with them is a non-starter. If they were open to reason, they wouldn’t believe in god in the first place.

The other thing I worry about is islaam and its spread. christianity may not have been the wisest thing that man has ever invented, but ridding this world of christianity may be even worse.

After this post, I don’t suppose any of you guys will want anything to do with me. I wouldn’t blame you if you did. This will therefore be my last post on this hallowed forum. I wish each and every one of you well.

As for the post about cancer: Unfortunately that was true. Sadly, we laid my best friend to rest this week. My god, pancreatic cancer works fast. I’m gonna miss him. RIP.

I’d like to dedicate this to him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y1fXJnR7FE

04-03-2014, 05:07 PM	#266
mondrian Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 658	Before I begin, please read all of this post before arriving at a judgement. I needed to determine the effect of posting free horse racing selections on a forum. I needed to determine whether the odds of the selections would increase after being posted, by what percentage and over what period of time. I could have tested this on a horse racing forum and, god knows, there’s enough out there. However, there are so many issues associated with such sites that I chose a non-horse racing associated forum instead – this one in fact. I couldn’t advise you guys in advance because that would have invalidated the test. I guess that some of you may be upset at this point because you may feel that you have been used. However, please be aware that the selections were taken from a well tried, well tested and trusted system and is the one that I actually use. It has been tested using data going as far back as 2008 and is probably one of the most tested systems that exists. Please also be aware that, before the test started, I stated that the strike rate of the system was 80%. During the test period, the system behaved impeccably and registered a strike rate of 83.33%. Those of you that used it to place actual bets would therefore have been amply rewarded. The test is now complete and the data has been analysed – which is what I’ve been doing for the past few days. No, the system wasn’t broken. I said that just in case I needed to run more tests – sorry. The results are not as expected – which has come as a surprise. The selections drifted, as expected, but not by as much as they ought to have. I always thought that those who frequent this forum were a smart bunch of cookies. However, I underestimated just how smart. Although the selections drifted, it looks as though those of you who were actually placing bets were trading out before the off and taking a guaranteed profit. Smart. The trading out before the off caused the odds of the selections to shorten again. This explains why the selections didn’t drift as much as expected. My conclusion is therefore that posting free selections on a forum isn’t a good idea. This is why we need to test out theories because, what should happen in theory, doesn’t always happen in practice. This was one such case. My thanks to all those who took part in the test, albeit unwittingly, and hope that you aren’t too offended and were amply rewarded. As for my non-horse racing related posts: I only joined in because I thought that it would help to gain acceptance of my horse racing selections. That said, I really don’t like christianity. It is based on a lie and is used for immoral purposes. My feeling is that, as a result of scientific progress, it will die out and become a historical curiosity. Unfortunately, the more we Atheists give the christians hell, the more galvanised they become and attacking them may have the reverse of the desired effect. Reasoning with them is a non-starter. If they were open to reason, they wouldn’t believe in god in the first place. The other thing I worry about is islaam and its spread. christianity may not have been the wisest thing that man has ever invented, but ridding this world of christianity may be even worse. After this post, I don’t suppose any of you guys will want anything to do with me. I wouldn’t blame you if you did. This will therefore be my last post on this hallowed forum. I wish each and every one of you well. As for the post about cancer: Unfortunately that was true. Sadly, we laid my best friend to rest this week. My god, pancreatic cancer works fast. I’m gonna miss him. RIP. I’d like to dedicate this to him: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y1fXJnR7FE The middle man of last resort.