Honest Mondrian's Gambling Joint

[ILOVEJESUS]

I must get back to doing these.

[mondrian]

Kindlelight Storm in the 5:55 at Wolverhampton is head and shoulders above the other horses in the race having won twice and been placed twice in its last 5 races. It's on a hat-trick bid and ought to get it. However, there's no pacemaker in the race and that means that it's pretty open and, at 6/4, it has to be worth taking a risk and laying it. It's a big risk though.

Beylerbay in the 8:00 at Wolverhampton is top weight but isn't the best horse in the race. At 7/2, it is worth laying.

[mondrian]

mondrian wrote

Kindlelight Storm in the 5:55 at Wolverhampton is head and shoulders above the other horses in the race having won twice and been placed twice in its last 5 races. It's on a hat-trick bid and ought to get it. However, there's no pacemaker in the race and that means that it's pretty open and, at 6/4, it has to be worth taking a risk and laying it. It's a big risk though.

Beylerbay in the 8:00 at Wolverhampton is top weight but isn't the best horse in the race. At 7/2, it is worth laying.

This morning, when I posted, Kindlelight Storm had both Attain and Handsome Stranger up against it, either of which I thought might win. By the off, Handsome Stranger had been withdrawn and I kinda knew that, with only one other horse capable of opposing Kindlelight Storm, the horse would win.

Kindlelight Storm was sent off the evens favourite. Inside the final furlong, it was leading and although pressed by Attain, ran out the winner by one length. Pity.

Beylerbey was a different story. It was sent off the 3/1 second favourite and was given a sound 7 length thrashing by the odds-on favourite, Joie De Reve and our 25th. winning bet out of 32 was in the bag.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 32
Winning bets: 25
Strike rate: 78.13%
Return on investment: 10.85%

Initially, this system performed out of its skin. The performance lately, not unsurprisingly, hasn't been great. I now expect the system to start performing a lot better.

Laters winners.

[mondrian]

The 5:40 at Wolverhampton is an egg and spoon race and looks wide open to me and any one of 'em could win. Diamond Vine looks as likely a loser as any.

Tip: 5:40 Wolverhampton lay Diamond Vine to lose.

[mondrian]

mondrian wrote

The 5:40 at Wolverhampton is an egg and spoon race and looks wide open to me and any one of 'em could win. Diamond Vine looks as likely a loser as any.

Tip: 5:40 Wolverhampton lay Diamond Vine to lose.

Well malchicks, there was plenty of faith in Diamond Vine since it was backed down from 9/2 and was sent off the 9/4 second favourite.

Catalyze and Outbid took the lead and stayed there until the final furlong when Diamond Vine launched a challenge. Diamond Vine managed to collar Outbid but Catalyze held on gamely by a short head and our 26th. winning bet out of 33 was in the bag.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 33
Winning bets: 26
Strike rate: 78.79%
Return on investment: 11.81%.

Laters winners.

[mondrian]

No selections today.

See ya on the morrow.

[mondrian]

Izzy Boy runs in the 4:00 (race 3 Kinich) at Wolverhampton today. It's almost bottom rated and almost top weighted. At 7/2 it looks too low and therefore worth laying.

India's Song runs in the 5:00 (race 5 Kinich) at Wolverhampton today. It's top weight in spite of having a 7lb claimer steering today and it's not the top rated horse. At 7/4, it's odds are way lower than they ought to be and has to be worth laying.

Tips:

Wolverhampton 4:00 Lay Izzy Boy to lose.
Wolverhampton 5:00 Lay India's Song to lose.

[mondrian]

mondrian wrote

Izzy Boy runs in the 4:00 (race 3 Kinich) at Wolverhampton today. It's almost bottom rated and almost top weighted. At 7/2 it looks too low and therefore worth laying.

India's Song runs in the 5:00 (race 5 Kinich) at Wolverhampton today. It's top weight in spite of having a 7lb claimer steering today and it's not the top rated horse. At 7/4, it's odds are way lower than they ought to be and has to be worth laying.

Tips:

Wolverhampton 4:00 Lay Izzy Boy to lose.
Wolverhampton 5:00 Lay India's Song to lose.

Oh Malchicks. My oh my.

Izzy Boy opened at 11/4 and shortened to 5/2 and was sent off the second favourite. It was settled in mid division. At the 2nd furlong from home, the jockey asked for an effort. Sadly, for the horse, the petrol tank was empty (if it was ever full in the first place) and by the 1 furlong from home pole, the horse was fading fast. Eventually, it finished 6th out of 9 and our 27th winning selection out of 34 was in the bag.

India's Song was sent off the 2/1 second favourite. It was settled at the back of the field. At the 2nd furlong from home pole, the jockey asked for an effort and made smooth progress. By the 1 furlong from home pole, the horse was leading and had the race at its mercy. With 100 yds, to go, it started to fade and was passed easily by the eventual winner and our 28th winning selection out of 35, and our second of the day, was in the bag.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 35
Winning bets: 28
Strike rate: 80.00%
Return on investment: 13.60%.

Laters winners.

[mondrian]

Chasp & chaspesses - I've been through today's 3 cards upteen times. Yes, there's losers in there, obviously. However, what there ain't is some reliable and credible opposition which can be counted on to give 'em a race. And there's the problem.

So, fellow malchicks and satanist, my apypolygollies, there ain't no selections today.

See ya on the morrow.

[mondrian]

Vitznau runs in the 6:10 at Kempton this evening. It's bottom weighted and top rated so it ought to win. However, it's an inconsistent horse, and at 3/1, it is worth laying to lose.

The markets at Kempton are still forming so there may be other selections later.

[mondrian]

mondrian wrote

Vitznau runs in the 6:10 at Kempton this evening. It's bottom weighted and top rated so it ought to win. However, it's an inconsistent horse, and at 3/1, it is worth laying to lose.

The markets at Kempton are still forming so there may be other selections later.

Vitznau drifted all day and was sent off at 6/1.

It was mid-field for most of the race, made little impression at the sharp end of the race and eventually finished 5th. Our 29th winning selection out of 36 was in the bag.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 36
Winning bets: 29
Strike rate: 80.56%
Return on investment: 13.66%.

Laters winners.

[ILOVEJESUS]

You are a blessing from the tipster gods!

[mondrian]

ILOVEJESUS wrote

You are a blessing from the tipster gods!

Glad to be of service good sir.

[mondrian]

There's a couple of half-chances at Ludlow today and, boy, would I love to lay 'em both. However, the opposition to one is on a four-timer bid which I think won't happen and the opposition to the other is carrying too much weight. That makes laying the two horses a bit too risky so I think it best that we sit today out and wait for better chances to rob some poor dolt who doesn't know one end of a horse from t'other.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[mondrian]

Today, we have 3 selections. There all carry risks but acceptable ones.

The first selection, Foggy's Wall, runs at Newbury in the 5:25. This horse is almost bottom rated and top weighted. It's odds are currently 6/1 which is a tad too high. If they fall, which they may do, then laying it to lose is a way forward. If they rise, then leave it alone.

The second selection, Blue Dog, runs at Wolverhampton in the 6:05. It is top rated but is carrying too much weight. This is a small field and, with no confirmed front runner, is going to be a tactical affair with an upset likely. It's odds are currently 9/2 which is a tad too high. If they fall, which they may do, then laying it to lose is a way forward. If they rise, then leave it alone.

The third selection, Sharjah, runs at Dundalk in the 8:15. It is bottom rated but doesn't have much weight advantage over the rest. It's odds are currently 9/2 which is a tad too high. If they fall, which they may do, then laying it to lose is a way forward. If they rise, then leave it alone.