Honest Mondrian's Gambling Joint - Page 17

mondrian · 03-21-2014, 02:56 PM

Quote:

mondrian wrote

Today, we have 3 selections. There all carry risks but acceptable ones.

The first selection, Foggy's Wall, runs at Newbury in the 5:25. This horse is almost bottom rated and top weighted. It's odds are currently 6/1 which is a tad too high. If they fall, which they may do, then laying it to lose is a way forward. If they rise, then leave it alone.

The second selection, Blue Dog, runs at Wolverhampton in the 6:05. It is top rated but is carrying too much weight. This is a small field and, with no confirmed front runner, is going to be a tactical affair with an upset likely. It's odds are currently 9/2 which is a tad too high. If they fall, which they may do, then laying it to lose is a way forward. If they rise, then leave it alone.

The third selection, Sharjah, runs at Dundalk in the 8:15. It is bottom rated but doesn't have much weight advantage over the rest. It's odds are currently 9/2 which is a tad too high. If they fall, which they may do, then laying it to lose is a way forward. If they rise, then leave it alone.

The first selection, Foggy's Wall drifted all day and was finally sent off at 10/1. Initially, it was held up but in touch with the leaders. At the 7th. fence, it began to challenge for the lead. The horse made a hash of things 3 fences from the finish. By 2 fences out, the horse was 2nd when it fell and our 30th winning bet was in the bag.

The second selection, Blue Dog, drifted all day and was finally sent off at 6/1. It led early and then held up to track the leaders. 3 furlongs from the finish, it was asked for an effort. By 2 furlongs from the finish it was challenging for the lead. Unfortunately for the jockey, the horse flattened inside the final furlong and finished in 3rd and our 31st winning bet was in the bag.

The third selection, Sharjah, shortened up before the off and was sent off as the 4/1 second favourite. Inititially, it was in 2nd. place tracking the leader. 2 furlongs from the finish, it was asked for an effort and began to dispute the lead. Close to home, it was headed and was beaten by a head and our 32nd winning bet was in the bag.

Well, that's 3 winning bets out of 3 on the day.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 39
Winning bets: 32
Strike rate: 82.05%
Return on investment: 13.79%.

Laters winners.

mondrian · 03-21-2014, 04:26 PM

Quote:

ILOVEJESUS wrote

Nice

It was, as it turned out.

mondrian · 03-22-2014, 03:10 AM

Satanists and Malchicks, it's an odd time of the year is this. Cheltenham, and the love of SOG's life, the Iditarod, are now behind us. The start of the flat season lies ahead but is not yet upon us. The only horses that are running at this time of the year are the dregs of the horse racing world looking for some scraps of prize money, before the end of the season, that will help to finance their failing careers as equine greats. The horses that run at this time of the year are the lesser equines, the unreliable and donkeys. As a result, their odds will be high for who would risk their hard-earned without ample reward? This is the reason that the odds of my selections have been creeping up of late. It will be thus until the start of the flat season and there is naught to be done 'cept wait.

In the meantime, we have a tip:

At Bangor in the 4:30 runs a horse called Bourne. Its current odds are 13/2. It is carrying too much weight, given its ability, and it is inconsistent. As such, it should be layed to lose.

mondrian · 03-22-2014, 10:09 AM

Quote:

mondrian wrote

Satanists and Malchicks, it's an odd time of the year is this. Cheltenham, and the love of SOG's life, the Iditarod, are now behind us. The start of the flat season lies ahead but is not yet upon us. The only horses that are running at this time of the year are the dregs of the horse racing world looking for some scraps of prize money, before the end of the season, that will help to finance their failing careers as equine greats. The horses that run at this time of the year are the lesser equines, the unreliable and donkeys. As a result, their odds will be high for who would risk their hard-earned without ample reward? This is the reason that the odds of my selections have been creeping up of late. It will be thus until the start of the flat season and there is naught to be done 'cept wait.

In the meantime, we have a tip:

At Bangor in the 4:30 runs a horse called Bourne. Its current odds are 13/2. It is carrying too much weight, given its ability, and it is inconsistent. As such, it should be layed to lose.

Bourne was sent off the 7/1 3rd. favourite. In the race, the horse settled mid-division. At the 4th fence, the horse started to chase the leaders but made a pig's ear of the 9th fence, weakened and finished 9th out of 11. At no stage was Bourne a serious threat and our 33rd winning bet was in the bag.

This means that we have won all of our last 9 bets.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 40
Winning bets: 33
Strike rate: 82.50%
Return on investment: 13.77%.

Laters winners.

mondrian · 03-23-2014, 02:46 AM

Sorry chasp and chaspesses. There are no selections today.

On the morrow, winners.

mondrian · 03-24-2014, 03:45 AM

Sin Bin runs in the 4:50 at Taunton today. It's almost top rated and almost top weighted. However, it's an inconsistent sort that either almost wins or runs a stinker. It is currently 5/2. Now, would I be happy backing this at those odds? Nope, I would want at least 5/1 before I would back it. On that basis, laying it to lose is the way forward.

One Scoop or Two runs in the 5:10 at Wolverhampton. This is the top rated horse in the field and isn't carrying top weight. However, the horse's form is on the wane and I'm counting on that to continue and for there to be a sleeper or two in the race. At 7/2, it has to be worth laying to lose.

mondrian · 03-24-2014, 12:04 PM

Quote:

mondrian wrote

Sin Bin runs in the 4:50 at Taunton today. It's almost top rated and almost top weighted. However, it's an inconsistent sort that either almost wins or runs a stinker. It is currently 5/2. Now, would I be happy backing this at those odds? Nope, I would want at least 5/1 before I would back it. On that basis, laying it to lose is the way forward.

One Scoop or Two runs in the 5:10 at Wolverhampton. This is the top rated horse in the field and isn't carrying top weight. However, the horse's form is on the wane and I'm counting on that to continue and for there to be a sleeper or two in the race. At 7/2, it has to be worth laying to lose.

Sin Bin was sent off the 9/2 3rd favourite. Initially, it tracked the race leaders until the 4th fence from the finish when it took up the lead. At the last fence, it was headed by the 8/1 outsider, Duneen Point, tried to rally but ran out of petrol and came in 2nd., over a length behind the winner and our 34th. bet was in the bag.

One Scoop or Two was sent off the 4/1 3rd favourite. Initially, it was held up at the rear of the field. 1 furlong out, it was asked for an effort. It then past 3 horses, flattend, ran out of petrol and came in 4th., over 5 lengths behind the winner and our 35th. bet was in the bag.

This means that we have won all of our last 11 bets.

That takes our stats to:

Selections: 42
Winning bets: 35

Strike rate: 83.33%

Return on investment: 14.18%.

Laters winners.

mondrian · 03-25-2014, 03:32 AM

'Huston', come in, 'You may have a problem'.

When you place a bet with a bookie, you can only bet the horse to win or place. That's it.

Bookies don't allow you to bet a horse to lose. That's what they do.

In order to lay a horse to lose, you have to place your bet on a betting exchange. The main ones in the UK are Betdaq and Betfair.

The exchanges are not what they seem, far from it.

The bulk of the participants on betting exchanges are not people nor is there a mix of backers and layers. The main participants are betting bots and they are predominantly programmed to trade. Even the bulk of the human participants are seeking to trade. They look for a trend in the betting on a horse, e.g. a drift. Once spotted, the bot will lay the drifting horse, then, depending on the bot's settings, will back the horse (thus completing the trade) after a rise in the odds of a given value or percentage (depending on the bot's settings). This means that the bot's owner wins, even before the race has started and irrespective of the race outcome, because, effectively, he has bought low and sold high and has completed a trade. What has he bought and sold? A bet.

On occasions, our horse has shortened in odds during the day. However, of late, more and more have drifted. If you get your bet on late, this isn't good because the lay value in the horse is much diminished and may have even completely disappeared. This means that when you win, the winnings will be insufficient to off-set your losses and, long-term, you will lose.

So, you go in with your £5 lay bet thinking, how can this paltry sum affect a horse's odds? Surely it can't can it?

The answer is no, it can't, given how much money is wagered on the the horse.

However, suppose 20 people each put £5 on the same horse at approximately the same time on the same exchange. The bots may well pick this up, anticipate a trend, and submit a bet of their own. Betting bots are produced by small software houses. However, they are rented out to thousands of people for £20 - £30 per month or sold for a one-off payment. The bots are switched on before the gambler goes to work and only switched off when racing for the day has finished. They run in automated mode without the need for human intervention. They are very sophisticated and have lots of settings which the gambler can use to tailor the bot to his personal requirements. As a result, it appears that there many, many bots running on the exchanges and each is acting in a slightly different manner.

When the bots spot a trend and begin submitting bets, the little ripple caused by the 20 £5 bets will grow into a larger ripple. The larger ripple will then be spotted by other bots, and human traders, and they will begin submitting bets. During this period, the odds on the horse will start to drift slowly. Then, as more bots and humans spot the ever growing trend, yet more will join the fray. Eventually, this small ripple will cause the odds of the horse to seriously drift. Some of my selections of late have almost doubled their odds. Please feel free to check as I have stated the odds at both posting time and the off.

Then, just before the off, the bots will be programmed to back the horse and the trades will be closed out and the profit taken.

At the beginning of the diatribe, I said that we had a problem. Well, fortunately, it's a good problem to have. If you have managed to lay the selection nice and early, that's fine. You simply watch the odds. If they increase, you turn trader and, when the odds have increased sufficiently, you trade out likewise and make a guaranteed profit, regardless of the race result, just like a real trader.

On the other hand, if the odds fall, no matter. Simply leave the lay bet alone and collect when the horse loses.

Hope this helps oh malchicks.

mondrian · 03-25-2014, 04:48 AM

Some horses, jockeys, trainers and, I dare say, a few spectators will be turning up at Fontwell, Chepstow and Southwell today.

Whatever will take place at those tracks today will be referred to, by some, as racing. But, what will actually be taking place is anyone's guess. One thing is for sure, racing it ain't. A few swallows doth not make a summer and, likewise, a few horses and jockeys don't make a race.

The 'horses' that are running today, when last seen, were giving children rides on Blackpool sands. They are a complete shower of shit that are best despatched to the knackers yard lest they bring the equine world into further disrepute. What is laughingly referred to as today's 'racing' is in breach of the Trades Description Act (1968).

I refuse to even watch the bloody disgrace that is today's 'racing' let alone give the good people of this forum a tip.

On the morrow, winners.

mondrian · 03-26-2014, 03:34 AM

Last night, Mika, our youngest cat, decided to spend the night stretched out at the foot of the bed. When Mika decides to stretch, he really stretches and almost occupies the width of the bed.

Boo, our oldest cat, also decided to spend the night on the bed only this time between my wife and myself.

I therefore either had to bend my legs to accommodate Mika and to shuffle to the bed edge to accommodate Boo and spend the night perched on the bed edge hoping I wouldn't fall off or to 'persuade' them to spend the night elsewhere.

Needless to say that the cats remained where they were and I got little to no sleep. They do as they please with me. I didn't have the heart to move them and they knew it, the evil little twats.

Such is the life of a cat owner.

This morning, I had a shufters at what masquerades as today's racing. There's a couple of races tonight at Kempton where there are two horses going for their hat tricks. On the one hand, the odds are against either of them scoring. On the other hand, they may well score because their opposition isn't what one would refer to as able and reliable. If I tip them to win, they'll both lose and if I tip them to lose, they'll both win. It's just like last night all over again. I want to tip them to lose, but just can't.

So, malchicks and satanists, I'm gonna turn chicken and sit this one out.

On the morrow, winners.

mondrian · 03-26-2014, 09:41 AM

Guys, some help if you please:

I have several large complex Excel spreadsheets.

One in particular is very large and complex and contains this type of statement:

=SUMIF($H$2:$H$78935,"=0",$I$2:$I$78935)

I've just noticed that a cell, which did contain the above, now contains:

=SUMIF($H$235:$H$78935,"=0",$I$2:$I$78935)

So, instead of interrogating cells H2 - H78935, it now interrogates cells H235 - H78935 and forgets cells H2 - H234.

I did not change the contents of the cell so it must have been changed by Excel as the result of an error.

Has anyone seen this type of error before or knows what causes it or knows how to prevent it happening again?

ILOVEJESUS · 03-26-2014, 11:27 AM

My expert opinion is that it is fucked!

mondrian · 03-26-2014, 11:42 AM

Quote:

ILOVEJESUS wrote

My expert opinion is that it is fucked!

Thanks for that. It will really help me sort the problem out.

mondrian · 03-26-2014, 04:54 PM

Guys and Gals

Looks like I’m gonna be up most of tonight.

Initially, I discovered an Excel issue with a spreadsheet that I use to identify selections that I not only post on this forum, but use to provide me with my only source of income.

Unfortunately, in sorting out the issue, I also discovered an error in the data created by the extract program. The error has resulted in duplicated, missing and erroneous data. This program error has to be found, corrected, re-tested, re-run and the data reanalysed. I’m hoping that I can sort out this mess fairly quickly and be up and running again by Monday at the latest.

Until then, there will be no more selections posted.