moo May 30, 2008
Posted by ocmpoma in : society , trackbackVia FP Passport (whose Blake Hounshell says he’s skeptical about the main points), an article about voteri americanus and this most predictable of presidential campaigns by David Runciman at the London Review of Books.
Money quote:
“Followed day by day, the race for the Democratic nomination has been the most exciting election in living memory. But viewed in retrospect, it is clear that it has been quite predictable. All the twists and turns have been a function of the somewhat random sequencing of different state primaries, which taken individually have invariably conformed to type, with Obama winning where he was always likely to win… …and Clinton winning where she was likely to win.”
And, nearer the end, bringing some Joseph Schumpeter to bear:
“In Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, written in 1942, Schumpeter pointed out that most people do not think much about politics at all: they simply respond to triggers in ways that require the minimum of mental effort. ‘The typical citizen,’ Schumpeter wrote, ‘drops down to a lower level of mental performance as soon as he enters the political field. He argues and analyses in a way which he would readily recognise as infantile within the sphere of his real interests. He becomes a primitive again. His thinking becomes associative and affective.’ The demographic determinism of this election campaign is evidence of the ease with which the main candidates have been able to exploit the instinctive reflexes of various segments of the population, and the difficulty that their opponents have had in overcoming these reflexes with competing arguments.”
I’m not as skeptical as FP - while I do think it’s stretching to say an election can be predicted solely on census data, I am willing to go along with Mr Runciman and blame the voters.
Tags for this article: politics , society , voters
[?][More Help]
Comments»
Oh, gee. I thought this post was about she who can’t be named. :D
I most certainly did not intentionally name this post ‘moo’ in order to draw in the unsuspecting. Nope. Didn’t. Can’t prove it.
Tsk tsk tsk.